Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Who will win the US Open title?

For the third time this year, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will face off in a major final, at the US Open on Sunday (2 p.m. ET; ABC).

Alcaraz won the French Open in June, while Sinner won Wimbledon in July (and earlier in the year, the Australian Open, in a final against Alexander Zverev).

Will Sinner win his fourth major hard-court victory in a row? Or will Alcaraz follow up his 2022 US Open title with another?

Our experts weigh in on how each could pull off the victory.

Jannik Sinner (left) and Carlos Alcaraz have met three times in a Grand Slam final this year — the first time that this has ever happened in the Open era. Frey/TPN/

What can Alcaraz do to defeat Sinner?

D’Arcy Maine: Alcaraz has had a phenomenal tournament and is the first man to reach the US Open final without losing a set since Roger Federer in 2015. He’s talked candidly about his desire for consistency and maintaining his level and focus throughout, and so far, has done just that.

He has also made a considerable effort to improve his serve this season and, sheesh, what a weapon it’s become. In his 84 service games this tournament, he’s won all but two. All but two!

Against Djokovic, arguably the greatest men’s tennis player of all time, he dropped his serve just once. Despite the straight-sets outcome in that semifinal, Alcaraz was hardly flawless — and at moments seemed rattled by the rowdy, pro-Djokovic crowd — but his serve (which hauled in seven aces) continued to buoy him.

In order to beat the often-unflappable Sinner, he’ll need to bring all of that consistency and focus, in addition to his incredible variety, and continue his serving prowess. Always a showman who seems to thrive when the lights are brightest and the crowds are their most energized, Alcaraz has everything he needs to win major title No. 6 on Sunday. Will he? Well, that could be another story.

Women’s US Open Championship Odds

Bill Connelly: My answer is the same as it was before the French Open and Wimbledon finals: Go big. When Alcaraz hits winners on 20% of his points against Sinner, he wins. He hit that mark in the last three sets of the French Open final, but he was only at 15.9% in the mostly straightforward loss at Wimbledon. He has been in complete control at the US Open, avoiding errors and lapses and still hitting winners on 19.8% of his points, and it’s possible that a more controlled version of Alcaraz needs to hit only 18% or 19% winners against Sinner to win. Regardless, he has to take his shots because Sinner’s defense and court coverage are just too good, and he’ll grind you down if you aren’t ending points when you get the chance.

Simon Cambers:The dynamic of the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry has changed thanks to Sinner’s win in the Wimbledon final. Having won six in a row to take a stranglehold on their head-to-head record, Alcaraz must now find a way to stop Sinner, who should have won the French Open and who outplayed him at Wimbledon.

It’s pretty simple: Alcaraz has to serve well. Ignoring their match in Cincinnati last month, which hardly counts because Sinner quit after five games due to illness, in their six previous matches, first serve percentage was crucial. In four of them, Alcaraz served at 60% or better and won 50% of points or more on second serve in five of the six. In the only one he lost — the Wimbledon final — he was down at 53% on first serve. At this US Open, he has been at 60% or better in five of his six matches. If he can reproduce that kind of percentage, then it will allow him to attack with the rest of his game.

Sinner is looking to win a fourth consecutive major on hard court. Adam Hunger/AP

What can Sinner do to defeat Alcaraz?

Maine:Well, first and foremost, Sinner needs to stay healthy. A viral illness caused Sinner to retire from their final in Cincinnati last month after just five games, and the world No. 1 also needed a medical timeout on Friday night for what appeared to be a right arm injury.

After the match, he said it was “nothing too bad” and “nothing too serious,” but he will want to make sure he’s as fit and as close to 100% as possible against the dynamic Alcaraz. Sinner has been all but unbeatable on hard court over the past two seasons. He’ll need to lean into that comfort and confidence on the surface, as well his powerful hitting, ability to dictate the point and, well, to paraphrase Alexander Bublik, his fourth-round opponent, his AI-like ability to read the game and respond to just about everything.

If he can bring his best level — the one we’ve seen countless times before — it feels as if he has a slight edge.

US Open Men’s Championship Odds

Connelly:Land the first serve (or go big on the second). Over the past year, both Sinner and Alcaraz have won about 42% of their return points — basically tied for the best average in the world. Despite having played Reilly Opelka and Arthur Rinderknech (who both win at least 65% of their service points) in the early rounds and Novak Djokovic (70%) in the semifinals, Alcaraz has won about 43% of his return points in this tournament. That’s tremendous when you adjust for competition.

But he’s also won 56% of second-serve return points. He’s broken serve 27 times in six matches and 18 sets. He is ridiculously dialed in with his return game, and if Sinner can’t command enough of an advantage there, it’s going to be awfully hard to craft an advantage elsewhere.

Cambers:Much like my answer to the first question, Sinner needs to serve well, too. In their Roland Garros and Beijing battles, he was below 60% on first serve, which puts too much pressure on his second and allows Alcaraz to take control from his return. More importantly, though, Sinner has to be physically at 100 percent; otherwise, Alcaraz will crush him. He says he was fine after his medical timeout in the semifinals, but that little hint of vulnerability will not have gone unnoticed by Alcaraz, who may try to extend the rallies when he can to test out the Italian’s fitness. Sinner is the best player in the world for a reason: He can sustain an incredible level throughout a match, no matter the opponent. If there are any doubts at all, internally, he needs to start strong.

Alcaraz is the first man to reach the US Open final without dropping a set since Roger Federer 10 years ago. TIMOTHY A. CLARY/Getty Images

Who will win?

Maine: I’m truly tempted to flip a coin here, but thankfully, I never have any cash on me. Alcaraz, the charismatic dynamo, has impressed me throughout the tournament with his consistency and his serving dominance and progress, and Sinner, the clinical technician, has just been so solid and rock steady. Even when clearly not feeling his best Friday, he dug deep and found a way to win against a formidable opponent in Felix Auger-Aliassime. I truly think this could go either way but, for the moment anyway, let’s go Sinner in five sets.

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Connelly:A few months ago, it was easy to assume that Alcaraz had the advantage on the natural surfaces and Sinner had the edge on hard courts. But then Sinner came within one point of beating Alcaraz on clay and took him down with relative ease (by the standards of this rivalry) on grass. Did that signify a semi-permanent edge for Sinner? Or does Alcaraz’s absolute ruthlessness in six matches in New York suggest he’s about to turn the tables right back around?

I’m going with Sinner in four here — it’s hard to pick against the guy who has won 27 straight Grand Slam matches on hard courts — but wow, has Alcaraz looked good. I’m almost hoping that I’m wrong and that this rivalry continues to defy our assumptions.

Cambers:I would have said Sinner would definitely win this, had it not been for two things: One, the medical timeout he took in the semis, and the fact that his preparations coming in were affected by the illness he suffered in Cincinnati.

There is so little between these two, they know each other inside out and usually bring out the best in each other, so we can expect more unbelievable shotmaking. It sometimes comes down to gut feeling, and it just feels like Alcaraz has the edge, at least on the form of the past two weeks. If he can avoid the occasional dip in form that he sometimes suffers, his high point is higher than Sinner’s. I’ll go Alcaraz in four tough sets.