MLB’s regular season enters final three weeks. Here’s a look at playoff picture, awards races

There’s a wide divide in finances between Major League Baseball’s big-market and small-market teams.

As for the win column? Not so much.

The 2025 season has produced a surprising show of parity through the first five months of the regular season. While most of the league’s big spenders — teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and New York Mets — are in good position to make the playoffs and do damage in October, they haven’t been as dominant as many expected.

In fact, there’s a good chance that this will be the second season in a row no MLB franchise will top 100 wins. The only team with a realistic shot is the Milwaukee Brewers, who rank 23rd in the league with a $112 million payroll. They’ll have to go 14-7 over their final 21 games to hit 100.

The last time there were no 100-game winners in back-to-back seasons was a three-year stretch from 2012 to 2014.

With three weeks and roughly 20 games remaining for most teams, here are some things to watch as the regular season winds down:

Playoff races

Their might be no truly dominant teams this season, but there’s also a pretty clear picture of the 12 teams that could make the postseason bracket — six in the National League and six in the American League.

In the AL, the Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros have a more than 95% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN’s projections. A sixth team — the Seattle Mariners — sit at a roughly 75% chance.

There are still several teams with hope, including the Texas Rangers (12.8%), Kansas City Royals (10.0%), Tampa Bay Rays (9.6%) and Cleveland Guardians (2.8%).

The NL race has an even bigger gap between the top six teams and the rest of the league. The Brewers, Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres all have odds of at least 95% to play in October.

Among the longshots: The San Francisco Giants (4.7%), Cincinnati Reds (2.4%), Arizona Diamondbacks (1.2%) and St. Louis Cardinals (0.8%).

The top two teams in the NL and AL don’t have to play in the best-of-three wild card round, instead advancing directly to the best-of-five division series. Right now, those teams would be Tigers and Blue Jays in the AL, and the Brewers and Phillies in the NL.

The D-backs could be one of the league’s more intriguing teams in September, even if they don’t make the postseason. They were sellers at the July 30 trade deadline after a disappointing first four months, but are 19-12 since that point, staying on the fringe of contention.

Arizona could end up affecting the playoff race even if it probably won’t make it to October. The D-backs play games against the Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Giants and Padres over the final three weeks.

“We’re in the hunt,” D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said. “I keep saying that all I want to do is play meaningful games in September. That’s our intent. We just have to keep our head down and believe we can still do this.

“The guys are showing they feel the same exact way, so keep digging.”

Awards races

Here’s the status of some of the major MLB awards races. All odds according to BetMGM Sportsbook.

AL MVP: This is an epic two-horse race between Yankees slugger Aaron Judge (-235) and Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (+155). Judge has had an excellent all-around season while Raleigh’s 51 homers are the most in MLB history for a player who is primarily a catcher.

NL MVP: Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani (-1200) is a fairly big favorite at this point, but Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber (+600) and Mets outfielder Juan Soto (+5000) are still in the mix.

AL Cy Young: Detroit lefty Tarik Skubal (-1600) is a big favorite to take home his second straight AL Cy Young award. Among the challengers: Boston lefty Garrett Crochet (+650).

NL Cy Young: Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes (-10000) is the overwhelming favorite to win his first NL Cy Young.

Manager shakeup?

There have already been four managers fired this season, with the Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles all making moves. The Angels have had an interim manager for much of the year because of health issues for Ron Washington.

Depending on what happens the next three weeks, there could be a lot more job openings.

Skippers like Atlanta’s Brian Snitker and Texas’ Bruce Bochy, who is now 70, could retire after the season. Other like Arizona’s Lovullo and Minnesota’s Rocco Baldelli have had disappointing seasons.

Even playoff qualifiers might not be immune. The Yankees’ Aaron Boone is among a handful of managers not just expected to play in October, but to have a deep run. An early exit could spell trouble.