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Esmerlyn Valdez (Photo by Bill MItchell)
Beyond acting as a finishing school for top prospects like Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle and White Sox lefthander Hagen Smith, the Arizona Fall League also gives players one final chance to make an impression on their organizations ahead of the protection deadline for MLB’s Rule 5 draft.
This year’s deadline to be added to 40-man rosters is 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 18. If eligible players are not added by then, they will be available to be drafted during the event, held annually at the Winter Meetings.
Last year’s No. 1 pick in the Rule 5 draft, righthander Shane Smith, pitched in the 2023 AFL before the White Sox snatched him up a year later. Ditto for the second pick, catcher Liam Hicks, who made his mark on the Fall League with a six-hit game in 2023.
As we look ahead to this year’s Rule 5 draft, here are five players whose strong AFL performances could earn them roster protection on Tuesday.
Esmerlyn Valdez, OF, Pirates
Valdez has spent the last two seasons establishing himself as one of Pittsburgh’s premier power brokers. The outfielder led the Florida State League in long balls in 2024 and then added 26 more home runs to his ledger in a 2025 season split between High-A and Double-A. He then homered eight more times with Salt River and earned the AFL’s Offensive Player of the Year nod. There are clear holes in his profile both offensively and defensively, but his ability to lose a baseball over the fence might gain him a 40-man spot.
Nick Morabito, OF, Mets
Morabito was a key piece of Double-A Binghamton’s run to the 2025 Eastern League crown, and he upped his profile another notch with a strong turn in the AFL. Drafted out of Gonzaga College High School (Wash.) in 2022, he has solid contact skills and hits the ball plenty hard but needs to produce more line drives and fly balls to get the most out of his skills. He’s a solid center fielder, as well, and could fill a role at the top of a lineup one day. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Mets add Morabito to their 40-man to keep another club from securing his services.
Jake Bennett, LHP, Nationals
After missing the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Bennett spent 2025 reestablishing himself as one of the better prospects in Washington’s system. The bulk of his innings in the regular season were spent at Double-A Harrisburg, and he added 20 more in the AFL. At each stop, he used his signature changeup to garner silly swings. That was especially true against righthanders, who hit just .197 against Bennett in the regular season.
Trenton Denholm, RHP, Guardians
Denholm was also one of the better-performing pitchers in the AFL this season. The righthander, whom the Guardians selected out of California-Irvine in the 14th round back in 2021, also posted a solid regular season, mostly at Double-A Akron. The righthander’s Fall League stint was a bit of a tightrope act—he allowed 19 hits but just three earned runs in 12.2 innings—but he was one of the circuit’s most reliable arms. Earlier this year, Denholm added a knuckleball to his pitch mix that already featured a four-seamer, two-seamer, cutter, changeup and curveball. His blend of solid stuff and upper-level results could lead to 40-man roster protection.
Hendry Mendez, OF, Twins
Mendez played just five games in the AFL before getting nicked up and shut down, but he’s clearly shown a profile that’s intrigued clubs. Originally a Brewers prospect, Mendez has been dealt twice—first to the Phillies for infielder Oliver Dunn and then again to the Twins for Harrison Bader. Each time, the acquiring club saw the same thing: a strong knowledge of the strike zone and loud exit velocity numbers but a tendency to hit way too many grounders. Mendez’s defense has improved, too, and he saw success at Double-A with both of his organizations in 2025. That might be enough for Minnesota to shield him from the Rule 5 draft.
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