The run-up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup began in earnest Friday, with the group-by-group draw for the 48-team field revealed. (Eventually. After musical performances, the typical FIFA- and Kennedy Center-style bombast and, for some reason, Kevin Hart.)
The complete schedule won’t be revealed until Saturday — why rush, right? — but we know who, where and when the tournament’s hosts will play. Let’s break down what the U.S. men’s national team will face and make some immediate, ironclad and infallible predictions.
Game-by-game breakdown
There’s a chance that the U.S. will end up in a group with three teams it has already played in 2025. The Americans beat Australia in an October friendly and Paraguay in November; meanwhile, they lost to Türkiye in June. Türkiye will be the favorite to advance from UEFA’s Path C playoff, one that also involves Kosovo, Slovakia and Romania.
Paraguay
June 12 | Inglewood, California
FIFA ranking: 39
Elo ranking: 21
When the U.S. beat Paraguay 2-1 in Philadelphia last month, it was seen as a sign of solid progress — Paraguay finished only one point outside of second in CONMEBOL qualification, beating Brazil (1-0), Argentina (2-1) and Uruguay (2-0) at home and finishing with more qualification wins than losses for the first time since 2010.
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Paraguay boast some familiar faces for American fans: Veteran winger Miguel Almirón plays for Atlanta United again after a long stint at Newcastle United, and 22-year-old midfielder Diego Gómez has been a breakout performer for Brighton & Hove Albion this season in the Premier League. Strasbourg’s 21-year-old Julio Enciso is quickly making a name for himself as well. But the meat of this squad plays in South America — captain Gustavo Gómez, with his 86 caps, plays for Palmeiras, as does midfielder Ramón Sosa, and a majority of the 26-man roster will likely hail from clubs in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay.
After Gio Reyna‘s early strike gave the U.S. the lead in Philly, Almirón assisted on an Alex Arce goal to make it 1-1 before Folarin Balogun scored in the 71st minute to give the U.S. the win in a cagey match that featured 50% more fouls (24) than shot attempts (16). Expect similar physicality at SoFi Stadium.
Australia
June 19 | Seattle
FIFA ranking: 26
Elo ranking: 30
A full week after the Paraguay match, the U.S. will head to Seattle to face another recent foe. Australia made easy work of World Cup qualification, losing only once in 16 matches and outscoring outmanned opponents by a combined 52-3. They began 2025 with seven straight wins before their 2-1 defeat to the U.S., and in the past two years they’ve played 10 teams in this World Cup field, losing to only the U.S. and, in February 2024, South Korea.
This is a strong, cohesive team, but it lacks a bit when it comes to major-club talent. Among recent call-ups, only midfielders Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe (both St. Pauli), defenders Kasey Bos (Mainz) and Alessandro Circati (Parma) and veteran goalkeeper Mathew Ryan (Levante) play for teams in Europe’s Big Five leagues. (Bos has yet to make an official national team appearance.)
Feyenoord’s Jordan Bos put Australia ahead of the U.S. in October’s friendly before two Haji Wright goals, both assisted by Cristian Roldan, gave the Americans the win. Australia allowed the U.S. to dominate possession (63%) but gave up just 11 shot attempts, three from within 14 meters. That was normal: They are natural and willing underdogs, happy to cede the ball and create counterattacking opportunities — even while rolling through qualification; in fact, they enjoyed only 53% possession.
UEFA Path C playoff winner: Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia or Kosovo
June 25 | Inglewood, California
FIFA rankings: Türkiye (25), Slovakia (45), Romania (47), Kosovo (80)
Elo rankings: Türkiye (15), Kosovo (42), Slovakia (48), Romania (53)
The U.S. beat Australia in an October friendly, and the two sides will meet in their second group stage game at next summer’s World Cup. Robin Alam/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images
It’s hard to preview four teams at once, but let’s give it a try. On March 26, Slovakia will host Kosovo in one playoff semifinal while Türkiye and Romania meet in the other. The winners will face off five days later with a spot in Group D — and a June 25 date with the U.S. in Southern California — on the line.
As you can see from the rankings above, Türkiye have to be considered the favorites to advance, although the prospect of winning a pair of single-elimination matches means that no one can be heavy favorites. Türkiye indeed defeated the U.S. in East Hartford in June: Jack McGlynn scored in the first minute for the hosts, but goals from Real Madrid’s Arda Güler and Fenerbahce’s Kerem Aktürkoglu gave Türkiye an advantage they wouldn’t cede. In Güler, Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz and Eintracht Frankfurt’s Can Uzun — all 20 years old — the team boasts some of the brightest young attacking talent in the world, although defense let it down at times in World Cup qualification: Türkiye gave up eight goals in two matches against Spain.
If Türkiye don’t advance, Slovakia might be considered the second favorites. They have reached the knockout rounds of two of the past three World Cups, and their squad could feature veterans such as midfielder Stanislav Lobotka (Napoli) and defenders Milan Skriniar (Fenerbahce) and Dávid Hancko (Atlético Madrid). They beat Germany to begin qualification play, but a lack of scoring (six goals in six matches) rendered them the group runners-up.
Meanwhile, Romania placed third in their qualification group, behind Austria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, but advanced to the playoff thanks to a strong Nations League performance. It would bring an experienced squad to the U.S. — and there would be symmetry of sorts, with the Americans and Romanians sharing a group just as they did in 1994 — but there isn’t a lot of major-club talent on the squad. Kosovo are playing for their first major tournament berth since declaring independence 15 years ago and boast quite a few players in Serie A (including captain Amir Rrahmani, of Napoli) and the Bundesliga (including 23-year-old TSG Hoffenheim star Fisnik Asllani). — Bill Connelly
How far will the U.S. go?
Connelly: Though Türkiye could end up being a high-end obstacle, this is about as favorable of a group as the U.S. could have hoped for. Paraguay and Australia are talented, but neither is in the top 20 of either the current FIFA or Elo rankings, and if Türkiye don’t advance, there will be no top-20 teams.
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We’ll keep these predictions simple and, well, predictable. Home teams usually fare rather well in the World Cup, and with even stronger and more partisan crowds in its favor than it saw in late-2025 friendlies, we’ll say that the U.S. is able to back up those friendly wins with victories in its first two matches. The Americans will survive a physical test from Paraguay by a 1-0 margin, then beat Australia 3-1 with a late counterattacking score. That will take the pressure off for the final match, and while it would be pretty easy to predict a loss or draw against Türkiye and a win over any of the other playoff winners, we’ll split the difference and call for a 1-1 draw. That will put the U.S. at seven points, which would have won any of the groups in the 2022 World Cup.
Mauricio Pochettino’s team will advance to play the third-place squad in Group B, E, F, I or J, and a win would potentially put the Americans up against Group G’s winner (probably Belgium) in the round of 16. Again: It’s hard to ask for a draw much more favorable than this, even if a quarterfinal berth likely means a matchup with Spain, England, Portugal or Colombia.
Jeff Carlisle:I think for the U.S., Group D has some tricky aspects to it, especially if Türkiye emerge from the playoff. If that happens, the average FIFA rank in Group D will make it the most competitive in the tournament. My sense, however, is it could have been far worse. The U.S. avoided Norway from Pot 3 and Italy (probably) from Pot 4, and Australia is one of the lower-ranked teams from Pot 2. The U.S. has also beaten two out of the three likely teams in its group in the past two months, those being Australia and Paraguay.
For that reason, as well as the fact that the Americans will enjoy the support of the home crowd, the U.S. should expect to win the group. And in many respects, it needs to win the group. Doing that would see it play one of the third-place teams in the round of 32 before potentially facing the winner of Group G in the round of 16, with Belgium the favorite to emerge from that group.
But make no mistake, this will not by any means be easy. Though the U.S. defeated Australia and Paraguay, the matches weren’t pushovers. Türkiye beat the U.S. quite easily in June, but that seems like a lifetime ago for this U.S. squad. In the meantime, the goal for the U.S. over the next six months will be to continue to improve.
Cesar Hernandez: Sure, Australia and Paraguay won’t be easy and the U.S. just narrowly defeated both of them 2-1 in the fall, but Pochettino should feel confident about his team’s chances in its first two matches of the group stage. Assuming the Americans get the job done and avoid a loss, they seem likely to collect three more points against the European playoff winner: Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia or Kosovo.
Subsequently, as the leader of Group D, it would then have the benefit of facing a third-place side in the round of 32. Once through there, though, the odds are likely that the Americans would face a team such as Belgium in the round of 16. Even with a home-field advantage that’ll boost its chances, it’s difficult to predict a successful result against the highly talented European side.
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‘That’s my house alarm!’ Frank Leboeuf interrupts World Cup draw watchalong
Frank Leboeuf is left red-faced as his mobile phone alarm goes off during the ESPN FC Live World Cup draw watchalong.
It might not be a dream run for the Americans, but they’ll at least have one knockout round win in hand.
All that said, the group stage won’t be simple either, especially if Türkiye earn that final ticket into Group D. Their introduction could make this more of a free-for-all in the chase for knockout round invitations.
Lizzy Becherano: The U.S. can and should dream about reaching way beyond the group stage of the tournament.
The Americans’ opener against Paraguay will be a difficult but fair matchup. Although just a friendly, the U.S. just beat Paraguay 2-1 in the November international window. The stakes will be much higher next summer, but at least Pochettino saw a glimpse of success against the future opponents.
As for the game against Australia, the U.S. enters as favorite with the comfort of playing at home. Although Pochettino & Co. can’t truly start planning until a winner from March’s playoff is confirmed, any of the four options can be considered beatable. Türkiye would pose the greatest threat, but dreaming of a first-place group stage finish is possible.
Realistically, the U.S. can advance as winner of Group D, giving the Americans better odds of less stressful route in the knockouts. On home turf, the U.S. has a decent chance of impressing at the 2026 World Cup.
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