Why the Senators should sign Shane Pinto to an eight-year contract

OTTAWA — Whether Shane Pinto is a second- or third-line centre could be a matter of millions.

Now, with the Ottawa Senators forward leading the league in goals and slated to reach restricted free agency on July 1, the matter is a particularly pressing one.

Pinto plays the toughest matchups, scores and kills penalties. Yet, on paper, he slots in as Ottawaâ€s third-line centre. Thanks to a scorching start to the season with seven goals while still taking on the toughest defensive matchups, Pinto has established himself as Ottawaâ€s second-most-important centre.

Nominally the third-line centre, he would be within his rights asking for more than the $7.1 million that official second-line centre Dylan Cozens makes. 

The Senators have offered Pinto an eight-year contract, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday. Per Friedman, there is “nothing imminent†between the two sides, but the Senators wanted to show Pintoâ€s camp that they are serious about finding a deal.

If Pinto left in free agency or was traded, he would not be easily replaced. He is integral to Ottawaâ€s viability in becoming a Cup contender someday.

Thatâ€s why a long-term deal makes sense.

Pinto will only just be hitting his prime at age 25 when next season begins. Ottawa has $30 million in cap space. With the salary cap increasing, the Senators have money to dish out. Plus the majority of their young core is locked up long term, although Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson and Thomas Chabot are all set to hit free agency within the next three years.

Ottawa should sign Pinto to an eight-year contract. The entirety of what should be his best years would take place in Ottawa, unlike a replacement prospect or a 29-year-old big-ticket free agent.

It would enhance the Senators for now and into the future.

Pinto could be considered among the Senators’ five most irreplaceable players, alongside Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson and former Vezina winner Linus Ullmark.

Since last season, no Senator has started shifts in the offensive zone less frequently than Pinto. He sits second in defensive zone starts, too.

Whenever Ottawa needs to hold on to a game and shut down its opponentâ€s best, Pinto is on the ice. In the first round last season, Pinto helped hold the top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies to three goals in six games at five-on-five.

Pinto is also Ottawa’s most trusted penalty killer and has been effective scoring short-handed, leading the team with five shorties last season.

“When you play good on both sides of the puck, good things happen,†coach Travis Green said.

Itâ€s also worth noting that Stutzle — typically the Senators’ first-line centre — played left wing last weekend with Cozens in the middle, and both scored while paired together. The more Stutzle plays left wing, the more important it is to have Pinto as an option at centre.

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Pintoâ€s growth upside and scoring punch

Twenty-goal scorers are hard to come by, especially for a Ottawa Senators that has struggled to put the puck in the net. Pinto is on an absolute heater right now — so much so that, hilariously, heâ€s currently on pace to score more goals in a single season than Wayne Gretzky ever did.

At five-on-five, he has an 60 per cent expected goals share, which would be the best of his career by far.

Even if he comes off the boil, thereâ€s reason to believe his career trajectory is pointing up.

Against the New York Islanders, Pinto scored, but he also had six shots including a penalty shot. Heâ€s on pace for the most shots of his career, which could turn a 20-goal scorer into a 30-goal threat.

“Heâ€s one of those guys that when we talked about our team improving, that youâ€d hope that heâ€d come back and be a better player than he was last year,†Green said. “Weâ€re not sure where he ends up as a player.

“His details are sharp. Heâ€s got a quick release. He works hard. Thatâ€s how we want to play.â€

Pinto wonâ€t shoot 33 per cent for the rest of the season, but heâ€s a career 13.4 per cent shooter who scored 21 goals last season even though he went goalless for 19 games after coming back from injury to start the season. Heâ€s averaged a goal every four games in his last three seasons, a 21-goal pace, from age 22 to 24. 

And all that while playing mainly a defensive role. But Green has now started to give Pinto minutes on the power play, befitting his hot hand.

The one knock on Pinto is his playmaking. He’s a scorer whose goal tally exceeds his assists. Nonetheless, in every season since 2022-23, he has set a career high in either goals, assists or points. He always improves: why would that stop at age 25?

In the new world of rising NHL salaries, $8 million is set to become the new $6 million. Recently, we analyzed contracts from excellent defensive centres who also contribute significantly offensively, including Philip Danault (six years x $5.5 million), Anton Lundell (six years x $5 million) and Anthony Cirelli (eight years x $6.25 million). Lots of fives and sixes, but the cap will have gone up by around $20 million since those players signed.

Letâ€s say the Senators signed Pinto to an eight-year deal worth $7.5 million annually. That would make up 7 per cent of next yearâ€s likely $104 million cap, which is only expected to rise further in the coming years. What may trigger sticker shock now would possibly look like underpayment in three to four years. Remember when people thought Tkachuk, Sanderson and Stutzle were overpaid when they re-signed? Those contracts now look like bargains.

Ottawa has $30 million in space — it can afford slightly overpaying without adversely hurting the roster. And if youâ€re Pinto, do you say no to a $60 million dollar deal?

With a new collective bargaining agreement set to take effect, the Senators can only sign Pinto for eight years until next summer. Then, if Pinto went elsewhere, his maximum term would be seven years for re-signing (or in a sign-and-trade) and seix years elsewhere. For Pinto to recoup that $60 million, heâ€d need to be paid $10 million on a six-year contract, or $8.5 million over seven years. Essentially, Ottawa could pay less than market value, but still give Pinto more money — thatâ€s an advantage the Senators should use.

Pinto would be 33 at the end of an eight-year deal — hardly old. If youâ€re a small-market team like the Senators that might not be able to pay to the cap moving forward, you sign your players to high AAVs that you hope age well over time, aiming to find value where you can.

One caveat is that Pinto’s leverage in negotiations is likely at its peak as he leads the league in goals. Every time Pinto scores, Nick Cousins shouts out “Cha-Ching†in the Senators locker room: ‘Poor Cous†knows when someoneâ€s about to be rich. That might tempt the team to wait a little before signing off on a deal.

The Senators know Pinto and his importance to the team. Heâ€s one of Ottawa’s best players — and he should be paid that way for eight years. 

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