If youâ€re purchasing a ticket to an NHL game this season and want to make sure itâ€s worth the price of admission, thereâ€s only a short list of players that can deliver more value than Macklin Celebrini.
The San Jose Sharks star enjoyed a very strong rookie season and heâ€s following that up by reaching another stratosphere. Celebrini looks faster and more polished — like he’s playing with something to prove.
That motivation could be showing that heâ€s worthy of a coveted spot on Canadaâ€s Olympic team when it take the ice in February in Milan. Celebrini wasnâ€t included in the festivities at the 4 Nations Face-Off, but with the way heâ€s started the season, youâ€d be hard-pressed not to include him on the roster.
Letâ€s look at that as well as some other early-season overreactions, shall we.
Celebrini deserves a spot on Team Canada
Based on the small sample size of the dozen or so games in this season, it certainly does seem like Celebrini is worth of inclusion on Team Canada. He sits in the top five in league scoring with 18 points in 12 games, and that includes some incredible individual performances. Celebrini already has a five-point game and two three-point games to his credit, and heâ€s also scored an overtime winner and set up another in San Joseâ€s first two wins of the season. Are there 14 Canadian forwards better than Celebrini right now? Sure doesnâ€t seem like it.
Any argument against Celebrini missing the roster based on talent alone doesn’t hold water. Maybe you could point to his inexperience and the fact that heâ€s only 19, but Celebrini doesnâ€t look like your average second-year pro. Heâ€s improved in a couple of key areas from rookie to sophomore that show more attention to detail in his game. Last year Celebrini was a minus-31 on a brutal Sharks squad, and in a similar tough spot this year on a team with a minus-10 goal differential, heâ€s a plus-1. Celebrini has also improved in the faceoff circle, going from 48 to 51 per cent.
Plus, if you look at Canadaâ€s roster from the 4 Nations, there may be a handful of players Celebrini could leapfrog come the Olympics. Will Mark Stone be healthy enough to play? Travis Konecny has started slow this season, and he was scratched twice to begin with last February. Then thereâ€s Brad Marchand, who had a great post-season but did look a little overwhelmed at times with the speed in best-on-best play.
Even if Canada took Celebrini as the 14th forward, it could be a good investment for the teamâ€s future. Whether he plays at the Olympics or not, Celebrini will be a big part of the national team going forward and will play a key role in several future competitions. By the time February rolls around, though, itâ€s going to be clear that any inclusion of Celebrini on the roster wonâ€t be just to bring him along for experience. He looks like heâ€s already ready to play a critical role in pursuit of a gold medal.
- 32 Thoughts: The Podcast
Hockey fans already know the name, but this is not the blog. From Sportsnet, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast with NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas is a weekly deep dive into the biggest news and interviews from the hockey world.
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Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have propelled the Montreal Canadiens to an early-season surge, but an unheralded member of the roster may be the biggest reason the team sits on top of the Atlantic. Backup (or maybe now former backup) goaltender Jakub Dobes is a sparkling 6-0-0 with a .930 save percentage and has started four of the past six games. He also has 8.2 goals saved above expected, which puts him in the top five in the NHL. The Canadiens are leaning on Dobes heavily and Samuel Montembeault has only played twice in two weeks, so is Dobes the No. 1 in Montreal now?
Not so fast. Small sample sizes are a dangerous thing to judge when it comes to goaltenders and Dobes doesnâ€t have the experience yet to officially be handed the keys to the Canadiens’ crease. As good as heâ€s looked, heâ€s still only played 22 career games and giving him four out of every five or six starts consistently could be tough to handle.
Meanwhile, Montembeault has posted a save percentage above .900 in each of the past three seasons. They arenâ€t eye-popping numbers, but he wasnâ€t exactly playing behind the mid-90s New Jersey Devils either. The Canadiens havenâ€t been a great defensive team over the past few seasons and Montembeault did very well in some less-than-favourable conditions. Not only that, but he has handled a true starterâ€s workload before, appearing in 62 games last season and earning a spot on Team Canada at the 4 Nations.
If youâ€re the Canadiens, you absolutely ride the hot hand in Dobes for as long as you can, but you also have to do everything you can to get Montembeault back on track after a poor start, which could ultimately cost him his Olympic spot.
Thereâ€s no way you can count on Dobes for 55 games or so based on his sample size, so at the very least Iâ€d bet Montembeault works his way back into a tandem situation eventually.
Wild and Blues will both miss the playoffs
If you were putting together a list of disappointing teams after the first month of the season, the Minnesota Wild and St. Louis Blues would be right at the top. The Wild were riding high after signing Kirill Kaprizov and St. Louis was one of the best teams in the second half of last year, but things have taken a drastic turn.
The only team worse than the Blues in the West right now is the Calgary Flames, while the Wild are ahead of just the Flames, Blues and Sharks. Minnesota has a minus-12 goal differential, while St. Louis comes in at minus-17.
The Blues blew a four-goal lead in a game to Detroit and have already allowed five goals in six different contests. Meanwhile, the Wild rank 29th in goals against, 32nd on the penalty kill and 28th in goals scored. Not ideal.
Neither looks like a playoff team right now and Utah, Seattle and Chicago, who were on the outside looking in last season, are all off to strong starts.
I still think over a long 82-game season both the Blues and Wild are too good not to figure things out. The Mammoth look like a wagon right now and they have enough talent to make the post-season, but Iâ€m not nearly as convinced about Chicago and Seattle. I think both of those teams will come back down to earth at some point, opening the door back up for St. Louis or Minnesota to make a run.
The Blues are a deep team thatâ€s well coached by Jim Montgomery and the Wild boast Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, a pair of elite talents. As long as they donâ€t dig themselves too big of a hole in the first month or two, both teams are capable of turning things around. That said, St. Louis is six points out of the second wild-card spot right now and as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman points out annually, only one in seven teams in the cap era to sit four or more points out of the playoffs after Nov. 1 wind up reaching the dance. The odds are stacked against the Blues.
I think thereâ€s a very real possibility that one of the teams will miss because of Utahâ€s rise, but the other still has a chance to sneak into post-season.
Thereâ€s always a big risk when you hand a goalie whoâ€s over 30 a substantial contract with a bunch of term, and the Ottawa Senators are probably a little nervous about their investment right about now. This is the first season of Linus Ullmarkâ€s four-year extension with an AAV of $8.25 million and things have not gone swimmingly. Ullmark boasts a save percentage of .861 after 11 appearances and heâ€s sitting dead last in goals saved above expected among all qualified goalies right now.
Whatâ€s worse is that Ullmarkâ€s playoff numbers havenâ€t been sparkling either. He has an .885 career post-season save percentage and boasted a mark of .880 against the Toronto Maple Leafs in last yearâ€s playoffs. That might make some Sens fans question how well Ullmarkâ€s deal will age as he approaches his mid-30s.
There are a few reasons to be concerned about Ullmarkâ€s play going forward, with the first being how poorly heâ€s played so far despite the Senators actually helping him out quite a bit. The Sens are ninth best when it comes to high-danger chances allowed, yet Ullmark is still struggling to keep the puck out of his net. As Mike Kelly of Sportlogiq noted this week, where Ullmark is struggling the most is with traffic in front of him.
Screened shots arenâ€t easy to deal with, but itâ€s clear Ullmark isnâ€t tracking the puck as well and thatâ€s only going to become more of an issue as he ages and his quickness starts to fade.
In Ullmarkâ€s Vezina winning campaign in 2022-23, the Boston Bruins had one of the best seasons in NHL history and put out a great defensive structure under then-coach Montgomery. Thatâ€s not to say that the Bruins completely propped Ullmark up that season because he was great, but donâ€t expect him to get that level of support during his Senators tenure.
I donâ€t think Ullmark is going to have a save percentage below .865 all season, but he has a long way to go to justify that cap hit. Even with the cap going up significantly over the next few years, Ottawa isnâ€t going to be excited about paying a mid-30s Ullmark more than $8 million unless heâ€s a top-10 goaltender. And right now, itâ€s hard to imagine him getting back to that level.
Logan Cooley cashed in with an eight-year, $80 million contract extension this week and itâ€s much deserved. Cooley is averaging more than a point per game this season and looks like heâ€s going to be a No. 1 centre for the Utah Mammoth for years to come, a role that every team would like to secure. The Mammoth are off to a great start this season based around a core of young stars that features the former third-overall pick. Cooley was chosen after Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec in the 2022 draft and one pick before Shane Wright, and Utah hasnâ€t regretted its selection one bit. Based on the way things are trending, it does seem like a very realistic possibility Cooley could be the best player from the draft class.
At risk of angering a large group of Montreal Canadiens fans, I do think if that draft was done over again today, Cooley should go first overall. Slafkovsky has been a great fit on Montrealâ€s top line, but finding a top centre is the most important and difficult thing to secure for any roster and Cooley has delivered 0.72 points per game compared to Slafkovskyâ€s 0.55. The jury is still out on what type of impact Nemec will make and Wright feels like heâ€s going to become a high-quality two-way pivot, but maybe not an elite point producer.
Slafkovsky wouldnâ€t even go second on a do-over but another Canadien would in Lane Hutson, who would definitely be a top-two pick. I have him just a hair behind Cooley. Thereâ€s no denying how impactful Hutson is and heâ€s already won a Calder Trophy, but based on the fact Cooley could be a franchise centre, Iâ€d give him a slight edge because of the position. Both players are incredible, though, and could be the faces of the league down the road.
Contract-year Sherwood is a sight to behold.
The rugged winger has suddenly found a scoring touch, so much so that heâ€s filled the net nine times in 13 games. Granted, itâ€s come with shooting percentage of 37.5, but the timing couldnâ€t be more perfect. Sherwood will be a free agent following this season and after setting the single-season record for hits last year with 462, an explosion of goals could mean big things for his bank account on a new contract. Any hope of retaining Sherwood at a reasonable price appears to be fading quickly for the Vancouver Canucks.Â
Teams love players like Sherwood, who can get in on the forecheck and throw their weight around while also chipping in with some offence, especially come playoff time. Itâ€s not like he hasnâ€t scored in the past either, as Sherwood posted 19 goals last season.
If heâ€s able to get to 30 this time around, Sherwood is going to set himself up for a big bump in pay from the $1.5 million heâ€s getting now. Given that the cap is set to make a jump over the next few seasons, it wouldnâ€t shock me if Sherwood gets $5 million per season with a handful of years of term if he hits the open market. If Tanner Jeannot got five years at $3.4 million annually, it feels like Sherwood could certainly exceed that.
The Canucks will have to decide how far theyâ€re willing to go to keep him.
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