How Much Does Throwing Harder Increase Injury Risk For MLB Pitchers?

Image credit:
Gerrit Cole (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

When studying how starting pitcher velocity corresponds to MLB success and longevity, we found a clear correlation between between pitchers who throw harder and those who have longer careers.

But this poses another question: How much more injury risk do those hard-throwing pitchers face?

The answer appears to be quite significantly more.

In our comprehensive study on velocity, we examined 236 MLB starting pitchers who debuted between 2008 and 2015—check out the story for complete data parameters—and looked at average fastball velocity in their MLB debut season compared to league averages for same-handed starters.

To account for injuries, we also logged the total number of 60-day injured list appearances for each pitcher, as we considered 60-day IL stints as a useful proxy for serious ailments. Pitchers might go on the 15-day IL with a minor ankle sprain or a tweaked muscle, but a 60-day IL trip means a pitcher missed at least two months in recovery from some sort of significant injury. Note that we didnâ€t break these IL stints down by type of injury, so a pulled hamstring, oblique injury or concussion all count equally here.

One notable finding was that almost any pitcher who pitches in the majors for numerous seasons will eventually get seriously hurt. Of the 19 pitchers in the study who threw 2,000+ MLB innings, David Price was the only one who didn’t have a 60-day IL stint.

It should perhaps go without saying, but the act of throwing a baseball over and over in high-stress environments is not conducive to good health. That goes for any pitcher, regardless of velocity. Of the 236 pitchers included in our study, we charted 394 separate 60-day IL stints.

But looking at the data, we find that the pitchers who throw harder are also more likely to get hurt:

VELO COMPARED
TO MLB AVERAGEAVG 60-DAY
IL STINTS> +2 mph2.81+1 to +2 mph1.95-0.9 to 0.9 mph1.52-2 to -1 mph0.80< -2 mph0.59

We wanted to make sure to control for different pitchers†career longevity, so we also looked at IL stints in comparison to 1,000 innings pitched. And while the disparity between hard-throwing and softer-throwing pitchers diminished, it did not disappear entirely:

VELO COMPARED
TO MLB AVERAGEIL STINTS
PER 1,000 IP> +2 mph3.63+1 to +2 mph3.64-0.9 to 0.9 mph3.40-2 to -1 mph2.57< -2 mph2.56

If there’s one surgical procedure that immediately jumps to mind when considering pitching injuries, it’s the Tommy John surgery used to fix torn ulnar collateral ligaments in the elbow. With that in mind, we also tracked pitchers who had Tommy John surgery by using Jon Roegeleâ€s excellent Tommy John database.

What we found was a similar trend.

The risk of a serious elbow injury was most prevalent among the pitchers who threw hardest. But because those pitchers were also the ones who pitched the longest in the majors, their Tommy John rate per 1,000 MLB innings pitched was actually lower than that of pitchers with average and well below-average velocity.

It’s important to note that we only logged MLB innings when looking at Tommy John surgery rate. As such, the high rate of TJ surgeries per innings pitched found in the group throwing 2 mph or more below league average was affected by these players’ limited ability to stick in the majors.

VELO COMPARED
TO MLB AVERAGETJ Surgery%TJ Surgeries
PER 1000 IP> 2 mph57.4%1.03+1 to +2 mph24.3%0.96-0.9 to 0.9 mph39.8%1.58-2 to -1 mph14.3%0.96< -2 mph29.6%2.70

Therein lies the conundrum. While throwing harder did increase the prevalence of injury for starting pitchers in the study, it also increased the opportunities to get hurt, as pitchers who throw harder have much longer MLB careers than those who donâ€t throw as hard.

Ultimately, because we’ve found that throwing harder correlates to success and longevity, the risk of injury seems to be outweighed by the risk of ineffectiveness when it comes to establishing an MLB career.

Source link