How Mark Scheifele and the Jets are finding early success

Mark Scheifele couldnâ€t have asked for a better start to this season.

Over the weekend, Scheifele surpassed mentor Blake Wheeler as the Winnipeg Jets†all-time points leader. On Monday, he scored for the fifth consecutive game in Winnipegâ€s win against the Calgary Flames — his longest goal streak since February 2022.

And to top it all off, the Jets, who won the Presidents†Trophy last season with 116 points, are back near the top of the standings after winning five in a row.

“Heâ€s been such a consistent player,†Jets coach Scott Arniel told reporters after Scheifele broke Wheelerâ€s record. “He has such great offensive skills and instincts.â€

Scheifele, 32, is out to prove that his 39 goals and career-high 87 points last season were not an outlier (and that he deserves a spot on Team Canada at the Winter Olympics). Truthfully, it will be difficult for him to continue scoring on 26.9 per cent of his shot attempts — more than double his rate from last season (11.9 per cent). But he is getting to the high-danger scoring areas far more frequently, which could allow him to maintain his inflated shooting percentage for a little longer.

Roughly 80 per cent of Scheifeleâ€s shot attempts (21 of 26) have come from the slot. Only Montrealâ€s Juraj Slafkovsky (82.8 per cent) has taken a higher percentage of his shots from the slot out of the 144 forwards with at least 20 attempts this season. (Last season, 64.2 per cent of Scheifeleâ€s shot attempts came from the slot, leading to 33 of his 39 goals.)

After netting the game-winning goal against the Flames on Monday, Scheifele credited his linemates, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi, for helping to spark his blazing-hot start. Winnipeg has outscored its opponents 5-2 at 5-on-5 over the 69-plus minutes when its top line has been on the ice. Connor has been setting up Scheifele exquisitely, feeding him on all three of his one-timer goals.

Connor, Scheifele and Vilardi have picked up where they left off last season, when they formed the highest-scoring line in the NHL with 50 on-ice goals at 5-on-5. But it is worth noting that they have not dominated territorially. The Jets have generated 44.6 per cent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 during the top lineâ€s minutes, compared to 51.5 per cent a season ago.

Collectively, the Jets have a 37.2 xGF% at 5-on-5, including a league-worst 8.06 expected goals for (1.81 per 60 minutes). Scheifeleâ€s goal-scoring frenzy has helped prop up the Jets, as has the play of reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, who has already stolen three games this season based on the number of goals he has saved above expected. Hellebuyck has recorded steals in each of his past two starts, saving a combined six goals above expected against the Flames and Nashville Predators.

Most of Hellebuyckâ€s best work has been done on the penalty kill, where he has saved 6.6 of his league-leading 9.5 goals above expected. That is why Winnipeg has stopped a league-best 96.3 per cent of opposing power plays despite ranking 26th in shorthanded shot quality against per two minutes.

“When you have (Hellebuyck) in net or (Eric Comrie), you trust in those guys so much,†said Scheifele, who is averaging a career-high 1:18 of shorthanded ice time per game. “Iâ€m still getting used to it. Thereâ€s still some bad reads that I make out there and (have) got to clean up.â€

It isnâ€t easy following up on a Presidents†Trophy season. Since 2005-06 (excluding shortened seasons), the winners of that award have averaged around a 15-point decline the year after finishing atop the league standings.

The Jets†good fortune is bound to run out eventually, but the good news is that critical reinforcements are on the way in the form of key defensive forward/captain Adam Lowry, top-six winger Cole Perfetti and top-four defenceman Dylan Samberg. All three will bolster the Jets†lineup. In the meantime, Winnipeg will continue to lean on Scheifele and Hellebuyck as the team banks points that could prove critical come April.

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