Categories: Baseball

Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Monday

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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Pitchers to stream on Monday

The New York Mets remain cautious with Sean Manaea‘s pitch count, but at the rate he’s striking out hitters, the lefty warrants streaming consideration. He has 28 punchouts over his past four starts spanning 18 1/3 innings, but he lasted only five frames in one outing. The Mets host the Detroit Tigers in the opener of an interleague set between teams with playoff aspirations. The Tigers have crushed lefties at home, but have struggled against them on the road, and Citi Field is one of the worst hitting venues in MLB.
Kyle Bradish was charged with the loss in his 2025 debut, but the Tommy John surgery recoveree only yielded two runs in six frames to the Boston Red Sox, fanning 10. Next up is another tough matchup when the Baltimore Orioles open a road set with the San Diego Padres. However, the Padres are playing short-handed with Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts on the IL.
Ryne Nelson has two straight quality starts, albeit with just nine strikeouts in those 12 stanzas. However, Nelson is limiting walks, hits, and homers. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Texas Rangers in an interleague matchup between teams playing out the string. The Rangers are without their starting middle infield with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager on the IL, giving Nelson a good shot at another quality effort.

Pitchers to avoid on Monday

Spencer Strider tied his season-high with seven innings in his last outing, but he fanned only three, bringing his strikeout total to just seven spanning his previous 14 frames. He yielded five walks and five homers in that stretch. In many instances, the risk is worth the reward, but with Strider and the Atlanta Braves taking on the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field, playing it safe is best, especially so early in the first period of many head-to-head playoff leagues.

Today’s best matchups for pitchers

Today’s worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Monday

Today’s best matchups for hitters

Today’s worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today’s top home run prop bets

Kyle Manzardo | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)

Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.92 EV
One reason to bet this: Hitters such as Manzardo with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Bo Naylor | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)

Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.81 EV
One reason to bet this: In the past weeks worth of games, Naylor’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.1% up to 16.7%.

Today’s top pitcher prop bets

Brayan Bello | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)

Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.87 EV
One reason to bet this: Due to his large platoon split, Bello will have a tough challenge going up against eight bats in the projected batting order who bat from the other side in todays outing.

Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER 6.5 K (-150)

Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Misiorowski has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 13.40 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 10.62 — a 2.78 K/9 discrepancy.

Luis Morales | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)

Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.84 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 4 field in the game for suppressing strikeouts, according to my projections, is Busch Stadium.

Today’s Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Marlins @ Nationals | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $8.18 EV

Giants @ Rockies | YRFI (-150)
Projection: 61% chance of RUN with a $1.33 EV

Guardians @ Red Sox | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $0.30 EV

Lajina Hossain

Lajina Hossain is a full-time game analyst and sports strategist with expertise in both video games and real-life sports. From FIFA, PUBG, and Counter-Strike to cricket, football, and basketball – she has an in-depth understanding of the rules, strategies, and nuances of each game. Her sharp analysis has made her a trusted voice among readers. With a background in Computer Science, she is highly skilled in game mechanics and data analysis. She regularly writes game reviews, tips & tricks, and gameplay strategies for 6up.net.