Everything you need to know to get caught up with the Maple Leafs

If, like me, you are both a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays and also someone who typically follows whatâ€s going on with the Toronto Maple Leafs, then I recognize your attention has been fairly monopolized by the former.

The Blue Jays have been an inspiration. They battled through injuries to show up for their teammates in key moments. They had surprising players become important by taking advantage of elevated opportunities throughout the season. They committed to great defending, they were positively bursting with intangibles and camaraderie, and their greatest players played great when it mattered most.

You may have felt me drift into more “lessons the Leafs can take from the Blue Jays†there, because if youâ€ve complained about the hockey clubâ€s shortcomings in the past, youâ€ll intrinsically recognize whatâ€s happening in the above paragraph.

But today isnâ€t about what the Leafs should do, or what they need to improve upon. Today is recognizing that most of us have been focused on those superb Jays, and need a little help getting caught up with the Leafs. Itâ€s about what the Leafs are through 12 games, what theyâ€ve done, and what you need to know to catch up with them for the rest of the way.

Below is me turning on the Leafs treadmill to a walking speed for you, then slowly turning it up so you can get into the rhythm of the season.

What you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs…

Itâ€s been a weird start to the year for Matthews. Heâ€s saying heâ€s healthy, and weâ€ve seen him over nine seasons have massive success without Mitch Marner, his most common running mate over that time. And so youâ€d expect Matthews to be very good, but he hasnâ€t looked dominant yet at all.

His takeaways are down, his hits are down, and heâ€s averaging under a point per game, with just one multi-point game so far this season.

But if you sort the table for goals heâ€s nibbling the edges of the top-25 with six, and heâ€s logged four shots fewer than league leader Nathan MacKinnon, whoâ€s played one more game. Matthews has 16 shots over his past three games, and heâ€s had more moments where he looks strong and threatening.

He hasnâ€t skated with his “snowball picking up speed down a hill†vibe, but on Saturday night there was noticeably more life in his stride.

Thereâ€s a lot to sort out with the lines, but if Matthews is indeed starting to come on strong – which his laser-wrister over Flyers goalie Dan Vladar hinted at – that would be big news for the Leafs. They need him to get hot, and for his line to control play.

Their goaltending hasnâ€t been what anybody expected

On the first day of training camp, the Leafs lost Joseph Woll to “family reasons.†He was away from the team for a month, but is back now, and working towards game action. Thatâ€s a good thing for a team that hasnâ€t got much out of its back-up starts this season so far (despite winning two of three, Cayden Primeau has struggled).

Their combined team save percentage is 31st in the league at even strength (.886), which obviously isnâ€t great. It hasnâ€t helped that the team is 31st in “shots against that are screened†(one out of every five shots are screens), and thatâ€s with a D-corps thatâ€s supposed to be good at clearing those areas. Anthony Stolarz called them out at one point, and has since worked to get his own game back to where he knows it can be.

Last game against Philadelphia, Stolarz was rock solid, which could be something to build on.

The teamâ€s best defensive defenceman missed some games with a concussion, came back 12 days later, and was concussed so badly he needed to be stretchered off against Philadelphia. Our best wishes are with one of the teamâ€s true heart-and-soul guys. Youâ€ll be getting a steady run of the big, shot-happy Phillippe Myers for the next month or so.

Six goals and 16 points in 12 games (top-15 in the league) while never going more than two games without a point, and yet somehow his scoring is secondary to his overall play. Heâ€s been hounding the puck on the forecheck and helping drive his line in a way thatâ€s been a massive bonus for the Leafs, particularly as Matthews starts slow and William Nylander has been injured.

It’s been a very … captain-like showing, you might say.

Nick Robertson shouldnâ€t go anywhere

Maybe a week or so ago, Craig Simpson came on Real Kyper and Bourne and basically said “If the Leafs are afraid of trading Robertson and having him blow up somewhere else, maybe they should give him a try alongside Matthews where they need a right winger?â€

Since then heâ€s tallied five points in four games (back-to-back multi-point efforts), and has played an average of about 15 minutes per night.

I hate to keep beating this drum, but Nick Robertson can score, and every team needs that.

Weâ€re back on the Easton Cowan Express

This year I have gone on TV and said “Easton Cowan should start on the team†as well as “Cowan just isnâ€t physically ready,†and Iâ€m now ready to go back to “Easton Cowan is ready and they should keep him.†Sorry to flip-flop, but I calls ‘em as I sees ‘em, and his play has vacillated greatly in the early going as youâ€d expect from a young talent.

With enough time itâ€s clear Cowan is a puck hound with offensive sense, so while there are times heâ€s just physically overmatched, itâ€s like an aggressive little dog hanging on the ankle of some lazy mastiff – he can be effective annoying people out there with his tenacity.

And honestly, the Leafs lack guys with offensive hockey sense and playmaking, which Cowan can do, too. As he gets more comfortable, I think theyâ€ve got a guy who won’t just hang on, but can make a difference offensively. If he stays in the lineup I bet he can get up into the 30-to-40 point window, and at some point, get some power play time. He works and can dish, which are a couple characteristics Toronto could sorely use.

The new guys are starting to find their footing

Nic Roy was given almost no opportunity out of the gate (which was strange), but his ice time is up from the early weeks of 10-13 minutes per night, to north of 16 in three of the past four games. Theyâ€ll need him if theyâ€re going to do anything significant this year.

Matias Maccelli has points in three of his past four games, and itâ€s getting clearer what success could look like for him. He has to win loose pucks with tenacity, and make the right play with the puck when itâ€s there, combined with the odd dish most other players just canâ€t make. Thatâ€s got to be his ‘plus’ skill, where he finds a guy in a spot that gets the Leafs a bonus look here and there.

Thereâ€s a useful spot for him if he can turn an effective third line into one that produces the odd goal.

Dakota Joshua is getting more ice time of late, too, and at least running into more people out there. Part of that inspiration could be from the newly added Sammy Blais, who has a goal and 10 hits in two games, to go with a few great puck touches. Thereâ€s real internal competition in the bottom six this year.

The power play isnâ€t scoring

Whatâ€s funny is, the underlying numbers arenâ€t all that bad – theyâ€re getting similar shots and high danger shots (actually more of the latter) compared to their power play last year.

But Morgan Rielly just isnâ€t elite at the QB position, and right now the team is 30th in “shots taken that land on net†on the power play, meaning theyâ€re not creating enough clean looks.

Theyâ€re a little worse at getting set up compared to last year (though they werenâ€t great there last year anyway), but what I like is that theyâ€re third in the league in offensive zone rebounds while on the power play, and third in the league in pucks recovered off shot attempts (according to Sportlogiq). They can get it back.

And they should be good at that, right? They have big, strong, players in Matthew Knies, Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander.

The concern is that Matthews has zero high danger attempts on the PP this season, and Nylander hardly has any shots there at all. The Leafs need to find a way to get pucks to those sticks for shots, so they can take advantage of their best shooters and their ability to recover pucks.

More goals than expected, both ways

The Leafs are seventh in the league at 5-on-5 “expected goals for,†which is pretty good.

But they have the highest “actual goals to expected†number, which means theyâ€re actually second in the NHL at 5-on-5 goals to only Colorado. The puck is going in the net a lot for them right now, as their 5-on-5 goal total is 31.

The Leafs are 17th in 5-on-5 “expected goals against,†which leaves a little to be desired.

But it hurts that theyâ€re 31st in “actual goals to expected,†which means only St. Louis has given up more goals against at 5-on-5. The Leafs have given up 32.

This “reality doesnâ€t line up with expectations†thing is a trend on special teams, too. They score way fewer goals than expected on the power play (31st in “actual to expectedâ€), and they give up way fewer than they should on the PK (sixth in “actual to expectedâ€).

The greater point here is probably just that hockey is weird, and if youâ€ve been betting the “over†on the Leafs, itâ€s probably not the worst time to think about doing the opposite in the weeks ahead.

Are there real reasons for these numbers? Poor finishing? Poor goaltending, except on the PK? Possibly, but not to this degree.

Bobby McMann was elevated in the lineup the past few weeks and put up zero points in eight games. He had his ice time cut last game, and will possibly be a scratch on Monday night, though thatâ€s not confirmed.

Thereâ€s a thing in business called the Peter Principle, which is essentially that everyone in a business gets promoted up the ladder until theyâ€re finally given a job thatâ€s above their ability and only then do they stop climbing, leaving most organizations – in theory! – with a staff of people under-qualified for their jobs.

Well, promotions happen quickly in hockey, but you can undo those promotions with the swipe of a dry-erase marker, and itâ€s becoming clear McMann isnâ€t going to be someone who should ride on the top-line after his recent showing, and his playoffs last year. With less pressure against softer matchups farther down the lineup, it seems like he can do more damage. But itâ€s still good to have given him run in the top-six, because you get real answers to your questions. Maybe when heâ€s red hot, he can get a short bump back up.

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Early on this season, the Leafs rarely had the puck. They got dominated in offensive zone time, offensive zone possession time, shot attempts, you name it. But theyâ€ve gone 3-1 over their past four, are getting way better at hanging on to the puck down low, and the numbers have been coming back in their favour.

The competition hasnâ€t been super strong, but it wasnâ€t earlier in the season either, so itâ€s still good news. With a change in their possession numbers for the better, Nylander getting healthy, Steven Lorentz back by mid-week, and Scott Laughton getting healthy, the team should only get stronger.

We thought it would take time for the Leafs to get on track this season, and at times it has looked ugly. But this is what the early season is for, guessing and testing, trial and errors.

As long as you’re finding answers youâ€re doing something right, and for the first time this season, it feels like the Leafs have successfully started that process.

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