Brady Tkachuk’s injury creates big early test for Senators

OTTAWA — Good teams survive the loss of their most important player.

The injury appears to have occurred on Monday when Predators captain Roman Josi slammed Tkachuk with a cross-check from behind, causing him to go awkwardly into the boards.

Tkachuk was irate, possibly a telling sign that he knew it was a significant injury right away. He continued playing but didnâ€t in the last nine minutes of the game.

According to Senators head coach Travis Green, Tkachuk will be out “a significant amount of time,†or, more specifically, a minimum of four weeks.

There is still no clarity as to whether Tkachuk broke his hand or wrist on the play, and whether he will need surgery. If surgery is required, recovery could be even longer.  Zach Hyman broke his wrist and dislocated it in May and wonâ€t return until November.

“At the end of the day, you canâ€t replace a player like that,†said Drake Batherson, who will make his own return from injury Wednesday against the Buffalo Sabres (7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+).

You can fill the Canadian Tire Centre with all the clichés about what makes a great captain, and theyâ€d all fit Tkachuk.

The Senators will miss his goal production. Tkachuk has led or been second in goals for the Senators each of the last four seasons, including leading the team last season with 29 goals in just 72 games.

Then thereâ€s the fighting, sheer toughness and the not-fun-to-play-against component he brings to every game.

And theyâ€ll miss his passionate commitment to win: Leadership.

Itâ€s a massive loss, but the Senators have experience to lean on from last season when Tkachuk went down after the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Senators went 5-4-1 from late February to early April, good enough to propel themselves into the playoffs. During that stretch, Tim Stutzle had multiple different linemates, including David Perron, Batherson and even longtime AHLer Angus Crookshank. The Senators, always a stout defensive team, became even more suffocating, with two shutouts while allowing 2.73 goals per game, significantly lower than their season average of 2.93. Defensive, low-event hockey kept the Senators in games.

Ottawa will need to replicate that and more this time around. Luckily for the Senators, the schedule for the next four weeks is light, with only four of their 15 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. There are winnable games that should allow the Senators to pick up points without Tkachuk. 

Tkachuk’s injury will shift the onus for offensive production onto Stutzle. Who will be his left winger?

The only natural left-winger the Senators have on their roster is Olle Lycksell, who has just one goal in his 46-game career. Not ideal.

Perron and Ridly Greig are the next two left wingers on the depth chart, with Claude Giroux and Fabian Zetterlund as other possibilities. The Senators donâ€t just need someone to step up and fill that spot to Stutzleâ€s left, they also need players on every line to step up their play.

But Green loves his options, and Tkachuk’s injury gives him opportunities to juggle. There are lots of moving parts, and thereâ€s no question Green will have a blender out to try new combinations, as he should.

The next month will be a real litmus test for Zetterlund and Dylan Cozens, neither of whom has yet to match expectations since coming to the Senators before the trade deadline last season.

In Zetterlund’s case, he has been playing on the right side of Stutzle and Tkachuk but is comfortable as a right-shot left winger. He has had great analytics with Stutzle and Tkachuk on the top line, but is still looking for his first point through three games this season after signing a three-year, $12.75-million contract in the off-season. Zetterlund has two goals and five points in 29 games with the Senators, including playoffs. Sometimes stats speak for themselves, but Zetterlund was once a 20-goal scorer with the Sharks, and the Senators are counting on him to do it again.

Similar to Zetterlund, there is a ton of pressure on Cozens to step up without Tkachuk. That was the case even before the injury. So far, heâ€s been fine and produced on the power play, but not at five-on-five. For Ottawa to become a great team, a lot rides on whether Cozens is the 30-goal scorer from three seasons ago or the player who hasnâ€t reached over 20 in any other year. Like with Zetterlund, if Cozens doesnâ€t score much with Tkachuk out, the Senators will be starved for offence.

Maybe Cozens is better as a finishing winger on Stutzleâ€s right side. Shane Pinto, who plays the more important matchups while producing more than Cozens, could slide into the second-line centre role.

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Another option in the top six for the Senators is Batherson, who has been a consistent scorer, with three consecutive 60-point seasons.

Interestingly, Batherson hasnâ€t played much with Stutzle over the years, but he did unite with the German in the majority of games when Tkachuk was out last season. When the two were on the ice together last season, the Senators had a 57 per cent expected goals share at five-on-five. It could be time to reunite Ottawaâ€s two most dynamic players with Tkachuk out. Batherson might have the pace and skill to match Stutzle, if he’s fully up to speed after missing the end of the pre-season.

But the obvious solution to filling the hole on Stutzle’s wing could be hiding in plain sight. Giroux could return to the top line, where heâ€s played with Stutzle the past three seasons alongside Tkachuk. The elder statesman has looked as effective this season as last, by analytics and the eye test. The problem with moving Giroux is that this season the third line of Giroux-Pinto-Greig has been the Senators’ best unit. Theyâ€ve contributed three of Ottawaâ€s five five-on-five goals with an expected goals share of 63 per cent. It would be risky to break that group up.

Regardless of how Ottawa tries to make up for Tkachukâ€s absence with scoring by committee, the Senators are in a win-now mode. A regression to missing the playoffs would be a “disappointment,†owner Michael Andlauer has said previously. It’s still only Week 2 but if the Senators free-fall down the standings without Tkachuk, they wonâ€t get the reward of a high first-round draft pick this season due to the punishment for the botched Evgenii Dadonov trade (they were docked their first-round pick). The Senators have zero incentive to tank.

The Panthers could serve as inspiration for the Senators during this next stretch. They’re playing without their captain (Aleksander Barkov) and their Tkachuk (older brother Matthew) and thumped the Senators 6-2 last weekend. Theyâ€re fine. Ottawa is no Florida, but to even come close, the Senators will need to emulate the Panthers. Next man up. 

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