Analyzing Dodgers’ potential opponent in NLCS

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers have punched their ticket to the National League Championship Series. But as they await the winner of Game 5 between the Brewers and Cubs on Saturday to find out who their opponent will be, the question arises: Who should Dodgers fans be rooting to play against?

It didnâ€t go well for the Dodgers in the regular season against either team. They were swept by the Brewers in six games in 2025 but aside from a 9-1 series-opening blowout on July 7, each matchup was decided by two runs or less.

In the two series between L.A. and Milwaukee in July, the Dodgers struggled offensively. The bats collectively slashed .179/.245/.301 while their pitchers posted a cumulative 4.30 ERA. Against the Cubs, the offense was slightly better; they averaged .230 at the plate and their OPS jumped up from a horrid .546 to a bad — but not as bad — .697. The Dodgers†ERA against the North Siders in seven games was 5.95, but a pair of high-scoring games inflates this number.

The Cubs would also represent something of a full circle moment; the two teams opened the season against each other in the Tokyo Series from March 18-19. The Dodgers came out on top in both of those games, but the Cubs went on to win four of their last five meetings, all of which were within a two-week span in April.

Let’s look outside of the limited sample sizes that the Dodgers saw from the two NL Central teams. The Cubs are the more powerful team. They boasted the seventh-highest average exit velocity in the big leagues this season at 89.4 mph and the second-farthest average distance (187 ft) and launch angle (18 degrees). Theyâ€ve kept that going in the postseason, too. Fifteen of their 22 runs this October have come via the long ball.

Former highly-ranked Dodgers prospect Michael Busch has been the catalyst for much of the Cubs†success after falling behind 0-2 early in the series. His four homers this postseason leads all players, and heâ€s hit 6-for-18 in his last five playoff games. Kyle Tuckerâ€s also gotten hot; heâ€s reached base safely in seven of his last nine plate appearances and went deep in Game 4 for his first postseason home run since the 2022 World Series.

The Brewers donâ€t rely on power as much as the Cubs; their average exit velocity is in the bottom 7% of the big leagues while their barrel rate is in the bottom 3%. During their three-game sweep of the Dodgers in late July, manager Pat Murphy aptly described his team as “a bunch of woodpeckers … pecking away ‘til they say the gameâ€s over.â€

But as far as rising stars, Jackson Chourioâ€s already showing he has the makings of one in his short postseason career. In his first seven career playoff games, Chourio is batting .462 with two doubles, three homers, nine RBIs and a 1.366 OPS.

And donâ€t forget about Freddy Peralta, who earned his second career All-Star nod this season and led the NL in wins. He also threw 176 2/3 innings, was top-10 in strikeouts (204) and ranked fourth with a 2.70 ERA.

If the Dodgers were to face the Brewers, it would be a rematch of the 2018 NLCS, when the Dodgers beat the Brew Crew in seven games to advance to their second consecutive World Series. Also worth noting: The Brewers have lost their last five potential clinching games in the postseason, dating back to Game 7 of that series.

Since then, theyâ€ve lost in the 2019 Wild Card Game and made first-round exits in 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024. The Brewers are 3-10 all-time in potential clinching games in the postseason, the lowest rate by any MLB franchise.

The Dodgers also have plenty of recent October history with the Cubs from their NLCS clashes in 2016, which the Cubs won in six en route to breaking their 108-year World Series drought, and a year later when the Dodgers got back at them in 2017.

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