5 Up-Arrow MLB Pitching Prospects Primed For Breakout Seasons In 2026

Identifying pitching prospects is a thankless job. Unlike hitters, pitchers from season to season can evolve and devolve, leaving us to reevaluate where we went wrong.

The Dodgers’ Roki Sasaki is a perfect example of this. A year ago, he was viewed as the top prospect in the game. Today, many wonder if he’ll ever be a successful MLB starter. For this reason, the evaluation of pitching prospects never truly ends. It’s important to note changes, improvements and injuries, as they can all impact a pitching prospect’s evelopment.

Keeping that in mind, today we’ll be examining five pitching prospects who are experiencing breakout performances in the closing weeks of the 2025 season. Late-season improvements and skill level changes are often great indicators for breakout pitching candidates in the following season.

All five pitchers listed below have impressed evaluators late this season and are considered up-arrow names heading into the offseason. 

David Hagaman, RHP, Diamondbacks

Hagaman had internal brace surgery prior to the 2024 draft and didn’t debut until this summer. Upon his return, he showed his signature stuff and drew attention throughout the industry leading up to the trade deadline. The Diamondbacks landed Hagaman in the Merrill Kelly trade and assigned him to High-A Hillsboro, where he has so far shown midrotation potential.

Hagaman sits 93-95 mph on a four-seam fastball generating 18 inches of ride and 10 inches of armside run. His slider is a mid-80s gyro with some drop, giving it a slurvy look. The D-backs have Hagaman throwing a new curveball, as well. Sitting 83-85 mph with two-plane break and heavy depth, the pitch has become Hagaman’s most-used pitch since joining the organization. He also has a fringe-average changeup that he used more heavily prior to the introduction of the curve.

Now healthy, Hagaman has three average-or-better pitches and four that he can throw for strikes. His command has taken a step forward in his return from surgery, and he looks like a player on the upswing as we head into the offseason. 

Trey Gregory-Alford, RHP, Angels

One of the better athletes among draft-eligible pitchers in the 2024 class, Gregory-Alford is a good mover on the mound with a projectable build. This combination of traits has scouts buzzing, as the 19-year-old has shown premium velocity already and has the frame of a future workhorse.

Gregory-Alford has premium stuff led by a pair of fastball shapes that sit upper 90s and touch 100 mph at peak. His four-seam fastball lacks ride, and he has well below-average extension leading to a steeper plane. For now, his four-seamer is his most effective pitch, and it posts impressive in-zone swing and miss rates. Gregory-Alford will likely throw his two-seam variant with greater frequency as he moves up the rungs of the minor league ladder since the four-seamer is unlikely to drive as much success against more advanced hitters.

He also mixes a trio of secondaries in an upper-80s changeup, low-to-mid-80s slider and upper-80s cutter. His command is below-average, and he’s still fairly raw from a pitchability standpoint. Gregory-Alford might be a slow burn, but there are ingredients present for a potential exciting rotation piece in the future. 

Angels righthander Trey Gregory-Alford ranks at No. 24 in @BaseballAmerica‘s Arizona Complex League Top 25.

He signed for a record $1,957,500 bonus for an 11th-round pick in the 2024 draft. The 19-year-old’s fastball sits at 96-98 mph and has touched 100 mph in the past: pic.twitter.com/35v9Xdf6b2

— Jesús Cano (@Jesus_Cano88) July 18, 2025

Jackson Cox, RHP, Rockies

Taken in the second round of the 2022 draft by the Rockies and signed for $1.85 million, Cox had Tommy John surgery in July 2023 and missed all of 2024. He returned to action with Low-A Fresno to begin 2025 and, after a rough opening month of the season in which allowed 12 earned runs over seven innings across four starts, he locked in.

Since May 1, Cox has made 17 starts for Fresno, pitching to a 2.03 ERA with 73 strikeouts to 15 walks across 66 innings. After struggles and injury defined the early years of his professional career, he seems to have turned a corner.

Led by his excellent stuff, Cox mixes a four-seam fastball, sweeper, curveball and changeup. His four-seamer sits 94-95 mph, touching 97 at peak with average ride and run. He throws from a 6-foot release height and exhibits below-average extension.

The jewel of Cox’s arsenal dating back to his amateur days is his sweeper. He has the preternatural ability to spin the baseball, averaging 3000 rpms on his sweeper and curveball. The sweeper sits 81-83 mph with around 4-5 inches of drop and 13-14 inches of sweep. It’s Cox’s best swing-and-miss pitch inside and outside of the zone, as he is adept at generating chase swings. Cox also mixes a two-plane curveball with more drop than his sweeper and less gloveside break. He has a firm upper-80s changeup, as well, with heavy armside run, but it lacks velocity and vertical separation off his fastball.

Cox is a talented arm who has finally gotten some momentum as a professional. With another healthy offseason, Cox could be positioned for a breakout in 2026. 

Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP, Red Sox

Acquired in December 2024 for relief pitcher Cam Booser, Fajardo has been one of the better success stories in the Red Sox system.

After six appearances on the complex to open the season, Fajardo saw promotion to Low-A Salem. He’s so far found success, dominating Carolina League hitters over 11 starts and winning multiple pitcher of the week awards in the month of August while pitching to a 2.84 ERA over 44.1 innings with 46 strikeouts to 14 walks.

Fajardo mixes three pitches in a four-seam fastball, slider and changeup. His low-to-mid-80s gyro slider is his most-thrown pitch with a 48% usage rate with Salem this season. He shows plus command of the pitch with the ability to generate whiffs and chases at high rates. His fastball sits in the mid 90s with dead zone shape, and it’s used mostly to set up his slider. His changeup shows average vertical separation off the fastball but trails the slider in terms of results.

As a young starter with a plus pitch and fringy fastball and changeup, an improvement to either pitch could pay dividends long term for Fajardo. The 18-year-old is a major up-arrow prospect heading into 2026 on the heels of his outstanding stateside debut.

Jaron DeBerry, RHP, Brewers

It’s possible no pitcher in affiliated baseball has had a more under-the-radar great season than DeBerry.

Drafted out of Dallas Baptist in 2024, DeBerry has climbed three levels of the minors in 2025 while impressing at each stop. Over 87.1 innings, he has struck out 26.1% of batters faced while walking just 7.2%. His 3.92 ERA is backed by a 3.54 FIP and a 3.13 xFIP, indicating that he’s actually out-pitched his results to date.

DeBerry lacks power across his arsenal, but he has an outlier ability to generate spin with six different pitch shapes. He mixes a trio of fastballs, led by an upper-80s cut fastball that sees the highest usage rate of his arsenal. His four-seam fastball sits 91-93 mph but makes up for its lack of velocity or ride with a flat vertical approach angle of -4.1 degrees. The fastball plane plays up due to DeBerry’s 6-foot-8 average extension and his higher spin efficiency. He mixes in a high-spin sweeper in the low 80s with 6-7 inches of ride and 12-13 inches of sweep and also shows a curveball, changeup and a two-seam fastball, giving DeBerry a basket of average-or-better offerings.

With added power to his arsenal, DeBerry could take a massive step forward and even debut with the Brewers in 2026.